Container crisis. Possible causes and consequences
The decrease in available space to meet the process of transporting goods, coupled with the increase in the price of maritime transport, translates into a scenario of strong complications that are negatively impacting the marketing of goods. This phenomenon has been called the "container crisis", which became more acute worldwide in the year 2020, after the outbreak of the resounding covid 19 pandemic.
The slowdown of work rates at ports and airports, their consequent closure, the carom effect of the increase in tariffs, and the existence of empty containers without the possibility of being reloaded to normalize and then speed up the pace of operations, undoubtedly reflects one of the greatest supply crises known in the history of supply and demand of goods on a planetary level.
It is no secret that a high percentage of international trade negotiations are driven by China, a country with 8 of the 10 busiest ports on the planet. Therefore, the strong measures implemented by the nation, in full pandemic advance, significantly slowed down the dynamics of international trade and the hundreds of thousands of containers that were moved from the Asian country to the West, mainly destined for the United States and European countries (mainly Spain, Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and France) in a first phase, were detained by preventive measures, but then, when reactivated and reached their destinations, they were not filled again to return to their ports of origin. Precisely, the crisis phenomenon evidences the fact that thousands of containers are not located where they should be, and such disarticulation significantly affects the logistics required to transport inputs and manufactured goods through the ports, from the producer to the final consumer.
Now, what happens after a certain normalization achieved, thanks to the effects of the vaccination programs implemented worldwide? What other factor causes the prolongation of this crisis to be estimated: the unsuspected effect of the increase in the demand for goods as a reaction of consumers, who, unable to leave their homes or go sightseeing, had started to buy goods in an accelerated manner, thanks to the subsidies that were implemented as a State policy in many countries around the world. In the words of Hamburg Süd's manager director for the Caribbean: "This is what generated the demand shock that put the logistic chain on the ropes".. This is a reality in which there are not enough ships, warehouses, trucks and trains to keep up with the growing demand observed in the context of the reopening of international trade, and the delays have been so marked that a significant number of fleets of ships in the world have been forced to stay weeks in ports to receive cargo.
The phenomenon of the congestion of shipping fleets and their consequent failure to meet delivery dates has generated a kind of skepticism regarding the effectiveness and speed of world shipping trade, since schedules are met at half speed (50% less than established). As a paradoxical effect of this situation, for those companies that have their own fleets and containers, the increase in freight rates (from US$ 2000 to US$ 4000 and more) have generated income that translates into a boom in their surpluses, not to mention the rental of vessels, which have increased from US$ 5000 and US$ 10,000 before the pandemic, costing today between US$ 100,000 and US$ 150,000.
Although the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates that trade in goods could grow by 3% this year, increasing to 3.4% by 2023, optimistic figures that express a relative process of normalization of global trade flows, freight prices will not be reduced to pre-pandemic levels, a scenario that is being evaluated with concern by both importers and exporters, since it could contribute to the inflationary trend of the world economy.
It remains to be seen whether the coming year will indeed be a year of normalization of the supply chain, a scenario in which the well-known just in time, (just in time) of greater precision in terms of production will be resumed, transcending the current just in case, (just in case) strategy that has been designed in the face of a reality of great imprecision and uncertainty.